Media Criticism

I have written multiple times on the prospects of New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg entering the race for the presidency. Bloomberg’s staff has been active in promoting his potential candidate while the billionaire mayor has denied these rumors with some subtle equivocation. It seems that the mayor has made his final decision clear in Thursday’s New York Times.

Bloomberg stated that he would not be a candidate for president in 2008 but that he would offer his support to a candidate who takes an “independent, nonpartisan approach.�? I think that there is something paradoxical about this support. Bloomberg is not running for president because John McCain and Barack Obama appeal to independents. If the nominees were Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney or Hillary Clinton and Mike Huckabee, Bloomberg’s support would be crucial to gathering up independents in a partisan election. I think that the appeal of Obama and McCain to independents won’t help either candidate in this election. Independents already like both candidates as has been proven in the primaries.

It has been discussed constantly that Bloomberg is wealthy enough to run for the presidency. The mayor has to finish out his last term in New York City but I see him angling for a larger role in national politics in the future. Millionaires took positions in the cabinets of Warren Harding, Calvin Coolidge and Herbert Hoover in the 1920s to steer the country toward pro-business policies. What if Bloomberg took a position in Obama or McCain’s cabinet to steer the country toward a more “independent, nonpartisan�? environment? If he is not working his way into somebody’s administration, I can see him developing grassroots support for a run in 2012 without bludgeoning people with his money.

I watched CNN all last night to watch the coverage of the Super Tuesday primaries even after California was called for Hillary Clinton and John McCain. It seemed that the hype around John McCain and the feeling among Democrats that Senator Clinton and Barack Obama would be suitable as the nominee seemed to prevail. Analysts like Gloria Borger, John King and Bill Bennett were satisfied with the analysis that John McCain was on his way to the nomination and the Democrats were girding for a long primary season.

In the hours of coverage that spanned early Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening, I did not hear one reference to the potential for third party candidates. Michael Bloomberg has been working under the radar to get a 50-state petition drive started. Ralph Nader begins yet another campaign for the presidency with an exploratory committee and a desire to raise $10 million. Ron Paul has shown strength among a dedicated but small group of Republicans, Democrats and independents who want a radical change at the top.

I reject wholeheartedly the prevailing wisdom that a McCain/Obama or McCain/Clinton showdown would preclude a candidacy by a strong independent candidate. John McCain is despised by conservatives, Barack Obama will need to reckon with the factors of experience and detailed plans during a regular campaign and Hillary Clinton has the negatives that Republican operatives dream about. If the Republicans choose McCain and the Democratic campaign continues through summer, I see Michael Bloomberg emerging as a viable option because he does not have the taint of a major party.

I also see votes siphoned from several other candidates though at a smaller scale than Bloomberg. A Ralph Nader candidacy can influence voting results in places like Minnesota, Oregon and other places where independents disdain the two-party system. Former Representative Cynthia McKinney is running for the Green Party candidacy and could take some votes from Obama or Clinton in liberal areas. Ron Paul may say that there is a 99% chance that he won’t run as an independent but I could see him bolt the party that he has lambasted throughout the primary season. All of these candidacies need to be accounted for in any analysis of the proceeding months of political talk.

I share a common affliction with the mainstream media these days that makes me a bit concerned. I cannot stop thinking, talking about and pondering the potential candidacy of Mayor Michael Bloomberg from New York. I know it is unlikely Bloomberg will get in and that Bloomberg would likely act as a spoiler in a tight presidential race. The possibility still excites my sense of hope in the political system.

I won’t get too deep into my interest in a Bloomberg candidacy. I can sum it up by saying that Bloomberg’s independence from partisan rancor, his substantial resources and frustration with both parties could lead to a historic campaign. A Bloomberg presidential campaign with the help of a nationwide effort at supporting independent candidates could lead to overwhelming support for the financial wizard-cum-politico.

The reason I am writing about Bloomberg today is that I came to the realization over the New Year’s weekend that the mayor cannot win the presidency. The numbers do not add up and the media LOVES the rat race of two-party politics too much to do Bloomberg any favors. The biggest obstacle is the constitutional roadblock to multiparty challenges that is the Electoral College.

We should look at places outside of New York to see how the electoral math does not add up for any third party candidate much less a billionaire with a maverick streak. We can write off Bloomberg in the South with the exception of some votes in Florida where there are plenty of retired New Yorkers. Bloomberg would be able to win some votes in California, Oregon and Washington as well as Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin where independents stand a good chance. The mayor would be able to pull votes in Vermont and New Hampshire but a candidate like Hillary Clinton or John McCain would win the day in those states.

If Michael Bloomberg had joined the rest of the candidates in running an early campaign, I could envision the success of his independent campaign. As it is, the reinforcement of the two party system by months of debates and campaign stops makes a 2008 surprise for Michael Bloomberg impossible.

The opening question may be inaccurate because a candidate is, by nature, an attention hog. I have seen few presidential candidates that have drawn as much attention as Michael Bloomberg by saying that they won’t run. Oh wait, Fred Thompson has done it. Oh, and Al Gore has been doing it. Bloomberg is not unique in his ability to intrigue and fend off the press at the same time with his denial of interest in the presidency.

The New York Times has reported that the popular mayor of New York City has set up Face Book and MySpace pages in a nod toward “the kids.�? The Times is just feeding the fire and seems to be straining to get Bloomberg onto their website when he hasn’t made news in a few weeks. This last statement should make it clear that I think The Times wants Bloomberg to run to shake up the 2008 election.

I wrote an article months back supporting a Bloomberg candidacy as something that would shake up the election. You can consult that article for my in-depth thoughts on the mayor’s chances. My point in this blog is to demonstrate that Michael Bloomberg is not a huge attention hog, just someone who responds to questions when asked. If The New York Times did not want Bloomberg to run, they would not keep asking the same question of him over and over again.

Mayor Bloomberg even criticized The Times a bit for asking if he will run. He made an interesting point that politics are not important when leadership is lagging. He is clearly a savvy operator in a way that Fred Thompson was not in his run up to the election. The reason he can be so savvy is that he has been an independent in principle throughout his two terms as mayor of New York City. If he did run, he would not need to worry about primaries and debates with lower tier candidates. In the end, I think that Mayor Bloomberg will not run for the presidency but is demonstrating that the line between preparing for life as a wealthy private citizen and a career as a politician is blurred. Rich people need MySpace pages and press coverage to accomplish philanthropic efforts and stay in the limelight of the Internet age.