Media Criticism

Voters who had not read articles, watched TV ads or heard anything about the candidates for president in 2008 may have thought that Thursday’s Democratic debate was a reunion of old friends. Analysts on CNN spoke about Hillary Clinton’s subtle dig at the hope of Obama and the demands for change by Edwards in a vain attempt at finding a moment of contention. The strict format set forth by the venerable Iowan newspaper seemed to take the bite out of the candidates in their last effort to convince caucus goers of their qualifications.

There were a few great moments in the debate. John Edwards and Hillary Clinton shared a laugh over a verbal gaffe by Edwards. Obama came to the defense of Joe Biden regarding Biden’s past gaffes dealing with racial issues. Bill Richardson made a joke about a New Year’s Resolution to lose weight while Christopher Dodd asked voters to caucus the right way on January 3rd. It is impossible to say that any of these moments elevated the discussion or helped any reasonable voter in Iowa make a final decision.

CNN said that their small group of undecided Democratic voters overwhelmingly chose John Edwards as the winner of the debate. I think the debate is illegitimate in the sense that Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel were not given an opportunity to speak while Alan Keyes was able to set up shop in Wednesday’s Republican debate. There were few knockout punches thrown and Democrats seemed to follow Republicans in trying to paint a positive picture while mail pieces and radio ads allow opponents to cut each other up. I am excited to see if the hype around Obama and Huckabee manifest in a victory on January 3rd. Here are three projections for the Iowa caucuses:

1. The nature of the caucuses, namely the viability clause, will ensure that Hillary Clinton won’t win in Iowa. Obama will get the nod from voters with Edwards getting second because few people have Clinton as their second choice.
2. I think that Romney will narrowly win in Iowa though look for a strong second place finish from Mike Huckabee. Huckabee will get some momentum heading into South Carolina (forget New Hampshire) where he will likely win.
3. Ron Paul’s fundraising success will have an effect in New Hampshire but not in Iowa because his small core of supporters in Iowa will be more willing to sit out the vote than team with another campaign to achieve viability in the caucuses.