Election 2008: Wisconsin’s Eighth Congressional District
The Eighth Congressional District in Wisconsin was one of the targeted races during the 2006 midterm elections. The seat was opened when Representative Mark Green ran for governor in the same year and lost. Dr. Steve Kagen, a millionaire allergist from the Fox Valley, defeated Republican candidate and former State Assembly Speaker John Gard by a narrow margin. The narrow margin of victory for Kagen means that Republicans will push to regain the seat in the 2008 election.
John Gard is running once again for the seat which represents Green Bay and portions of the Fox Valley. This area has expanded rapidly over the last few years as the Fox Valley becomes an important business corridor in the state. I lived in Green Bay from birth through college graduation and know that the area is inherently conservative. Kagen and other Democrats who have run in the area lean toward the middle to gather up the votes of Democrats and disgruntled Republicans. This moderation is beneficial as part of a party sweep through local, state and federal bodies. The problem with being a moderate Republican or Democrat in a tight race is taking advantage of the top of the ticket.
Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and DNC Chairman Howard Dean can speak about appealing to voters outside of the party all they want. Voters who chose Democrats in 2006 may vote for the party’s presidential candidate but turn against lower office holders. Gard has a number of factors on his side in 2008: money from a desperate party, maverick voters in every part of the Badger State and the virtue of not having a vote in Congress the last two years. Kagen has been less than impressive as a rookie representative and the Congressional Democrats may be overconfident in their assessment of the fall races. I think that the race will come down to a few hundred votes and Gard will emerge the victor.
March 21st, 2008 at 7:52 am
Keep Dreaming!
March 21st, 2008 at 6:48 pm
[...] will use the race for Wisconsin’s First Congressional District as an example. Every analyst, political science professor and pundit I hear speaking about this [...]