Super Tuesday Results Open Path for Several Independents in 2008
I watched CNN all last night to watch the coverage of the Super Tuesday primaries even after California was called for Hillary Clinton and John McCain. It seemed that the hype around John McCain and the feeling among Democrats that Senator Clinton and Barack Obama would be suitable as the nominee seemed to prevail. Analysts like Gloria Borger, John King and Bill Bennett were satisfied with the analysis that John McCain was on his way to the nomination and the Democrats were girding for a long primary season.
In the hours of coverage that spanned early Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening, I did not hear one reference to the potential for third party candidates. Michael Bloomberg has been working under the radar to get a 50-state petition drive started. Ralph Nader begins yet another campaign for the presidency with an exploratory committee and a desire to raise $10 million. Ron Paul has shown strength among a dedicated but small group of Republicans, Democrats and independents who want a radical change at the top.
I reject wholeheartedly the prevailing wisdom that a McCain/Obama or McCain/Clinton showdown would preclude a candidacy by a strong independent candidate. John McCain is despised by conservatives, Barack Obama will need to reckon with the factors of experience and detailed plans during a regular campaign and Hillary Clinton has the negatives that Republican operatives dream about. If the Republicans choose McCain and the Democratic campaign continues through summer, I see Michael Bloomberg emerging as a viable option because he does not have the taint of a major party.
I also see votes siphoned from several other candidates though at a smaller scale than Bloomberg. A Ralph Nader candidacy can influence voting results in places like Minnesota, Oregon and other places where independents disdain the two-party system. Former Representative Cynthia McKinney is running for the Green Party candidacy and could take some votes from Obama or Clinton in liberal areas. Ron Paul may say that there is a 99% chance that he won’t run as an independent but I could see him bolt the party that he has lambasted throughout the primary season. All of these candidacies need to be accounted for in any analysis of the proceeding months of political talk.
February 29th, 2008 at 6:50 am
[...] Bloomberg stated that he would not be a candidate for president in 2008 but that he would offer his support to a candidate who takes an “independent, nonpartisan approach.� I think that there is something paradoxical about this support. Bloomberg is not running for president because John McCain and Barack Obama appeal to independents. If the nominees were Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney or Hillary Clinton and Mike Huckabee, Bloomberg’s support would be crucial to gathering up independents in a partisan election. I think that the appeal of Obama and McCain to independents won’t help either candidate in this election. Independents already like both candidates as has been proven in the primaries. [...]